Perceptual Risk Indexes
First Set
Perceptual Risks Indexes — The First Set
Our work focuses on how people think, decide, and act in digital environments — and how these patterns shape trust, reputation, and collective behavior across industries and societies.
01 / INSINCERE
Risk of being perceived as Insincere & Fake
Exclusive dominance of positive evaluative statements across all brand mentions in social media and press.
Evidence
Psychologically, people trust those who are capable of self-irony and honesty. According to the Journal of Consumer Psychology, acknowledging a minor flaw in advertising increases trust by 32%.
When it comes to reviews — exclusively positive ratings and 5-star scores raise suspicion of brand control over the information field: suppressing negatives, generating positives.
62% of users who distrust reviews on the official website will seek information from independent sources.
How We Measure
Share of positive mentions in the total volume of expressive mentions. The higher the share — the higher the risk index.
Consumer impact
Consumers will seek information on independent platforms, convinced that real criticism is being hidden from them.
02 / SPINELESS
Risk of being perceived as Spineless & Feeble
Exclusive dominance of negative evaluative statements across all brand mentions. The brand does not defend itself.
Evidence
A mass of negative reviews unbalanced by brand or ambassador responses is perceived as an admission of guilt.
Forbes states directly: the cost of 'burying your head in the sand' is always higher than the cost of a swift turnaround and acknowledgment of wrongdoing.
Consumer psychology works such that in the absence of your version of events, the vacuum is filled by rumours, gossip, and anger.
How We Measure
Share of positive mentions in the total volume of expressive mentions. The higher the share — the higher the risk index.
Consumer impact
Consumers will seek information on independent platforms, convinced that real criticism is being hidden from them.
03 / PRETENTIOUS
Risk of being perceived as Pretentious
Near-total absence of expressive brand mentions. Neutral, product-focused statements dominate.
Evidence
Brand information is delivered in a purely utilitarian and emotionless way — leading to a lack of curiosity among non-consumers and developmental stagnation.
The desire to control the agenda results in a 'perfect' profile: curated posts, professional photography, minimal informal content.
Wisemotify research shows that a significant portion of consumers simply don’t consider products without reviews. A 'silent storefront' is a red flag — a stop-purchase signal.
How We Measure
Share of non-expressive content in the total volume of brand mentions. The higher the share — the higher the risk index.
Consumer impact
Consumers will NOT seek information about the brand, leading to brand forgetting and a drop in search traffic.
04 / INTRUSIVE
Risk of being perceived as Intrusive & Aggressive
Extremely pronounced dominance of expressive brand mentions, with minimal factual statements.
Evidence
Aggressive sales tactics plant a time bomb in brand perception — diminishing its value in consumers' eyes and raising suspicions of low quality.
The more people hear enthusiastic talk about a new product, the more anxious and cautious they feel when actually using it.
Such emotional peaks drive extreme spikes in search traffic fuelled by distrust. If insufficient product evidence is found to justify the hype — the consumer will be disappointed.
How We Measure
Share of expressive content in the total volume of brand mentions. The higher the share — the higher the risk index.
Consumer impact
Consumers will search for brand information with suspicion and caution, resulting in a lack of conversion.
Measurement Methodology
How the Index Works
All four indexes in the first set follow the same logic: the full volume of brand mentions over a period is collected, and a target share is extracted — positive, negative, expressive, or neutral.
The closer the share is to an extreme value (100% or 0%), the higher the perceptual risk index. A balanced distribution is the foundation of healthy brand perception.
Mention Collection
All brand mentions over the period from social media and press
Classification
Segmentation into positive, negative, expressive, and neutral categories
Share Calculation
Computing the target category's share of total brand mentions
Risk Index
The greater the deviation from the norm — the higher the perceptual risk index
Second Set — In Development
Perceptual Risk Index — The Second Set
05 / CONTRADICTORY (in development)
Risk of being perceived as Contradictory
Internal contradictions in brand communications and mentions, where a cacophony of voices blurs and dilutes the brand.
Evidence
The diagram demonstrates the correctness of extreme brand positions on the perception scale. Middle values represent brand diffusion and incoherence.
Building this index will require a content analysis methodology.
This direction is in active development — a long-term research perspective for ICDS.
How We Measure
Content analysis of thematic and tonal consistency across brand communications. Index under development.
Consumer impact
Erosion of brand identity, reduction in perceived value and predictability.
The second set of indexes is in active development. Building the CONTRADICTORY index will require a deep content analysis methodology.
ICDS is not yet certain that convincing evidence of this threat can be established — research is ongoing.
ICDS is not yet certain that convincing evidence of this threat can be established — research is ongoing.